Extratropical Cyclone

Advance your risk management capabilities with AIR extratropical cyclone models.

Extratropical cyclones, also known as winter storms, are a meteorologically complex hazard with highly variable regional manifestations. AIR models help you assess the risk, whether from a single storm or storms clustered in space and time, including the most extreme events.

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Realistically capture the formation and behavior of ETCs.

AIR employs a hybrid approach that leverages both Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), a physical model that can effectively capture the complex three-dimensional structure of winter storms spatially and temporally, and advanced statistical methods to create simulated storms grounded in reality.

Learn about our ETC model for Europe

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Incorporate a more realistic view of surface wind speeds in loss estimations.

Use high-resolution land use/land cover and elevation data to capture realistic wind speeds at the surface, where exposure is at risk.

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Evaluate damage by sub-peril.

In the U.S. and Canada, winter storms comprise the following sub-perils: wind, winter precipitation (snow, ice pellets, and freezing rain), and freezing temperatures. Because these sub-perils damage property differently, the U.S. and Canada winter storm models’ damage functions capture the specific mechanisms by which each causes loss.

Explore our U.S. winter storm model

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Understand the impact of regional climate on storms.

AIR models capture the considerable diversity in climate and seasonal storm intensity and frequency by region. In Northern Europe for example, winter storms tend to arrive in clusters, high winds and heavy snowfalls predominate in western North America, and in the Great Lakes region, ice storms are more frequent.

Discover our winter storm model for Canada

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Consider differences in regional vulnerability.

The AIR models take into consideration the effect that regional wind hazard characteristics can have on local design levels, building code enforcement, and construction practices, and they account for design snow loads that have changed over time across North America.