Explore the sensitivity of catastrophe risk to a changing climate.
Insurers, reinsurers, financial institutions, and policymakers are being asked increasingly tough questions about their resilience to the possible effects of a changing climate. AIR takes an active role in climate research and is committed to helping clients understand, measure, and manage the associated uncertainties.
For more than two decades, AIR has been an active part of a global community of scientists researching the potential impacts of climate change on catastrophe risk. Scientists at AIR collaborate with organizations like The Met Office (UK), Geosciences Australia (GA), and the Association of British Insurers (ABI) to quantify the financial impacts of climate change. Findings have indicated correlations between environmental factors such as sea levels and sea surface temperatures, and the intensity and frequency of natural disasters, including windstorms, floods, and coastal storm surge.
The results of this growing body of research will help clients achieve a better understanding of the sensitivity of risk to climate change, make more informed business decisions, and better meet regulatory requirements.
Today’s climate is different from that of 50 or 100 years ago. AIR catastrophe models reflect the current climate, including current sea levels and coastlines, precipitation patterns, and storm intensities and frequencies. As the models are updated, they incorporate the most recent seasons of higher—or lower—activity, as well as changes in exposures, to better reflect today’s risk.
There remains considerable uncertainty regarding the effect of ongoing and future climate change on catastrophe risk. While consensus findings point to increasing losses in the future, the broad stroke projections have limited application on the local scale at which risk is underwritten. The possibility that risk, on a longer time horizon, is radically different from what is represented by historical experience is an active area of investigation at AIR.
AIR is committed to helping clients understand, measure, and manage the uncertainties associated with a changing climate.