AIR Worldwide Estimates Industry Insured Losses for Flooding in Western Japan
BOSTON, Aug. 20, 2018 – Catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide estimates that industry insured losses from the flooding in western Japan caused by excessive rainfall from June 28 to July 8, 2018, will be between JPY 284 billion (USD 2.6 billion) and JPY 423 billion (USD 4.0 billion).
Following successive heavy downpours from June 28 onward, several days of record-breaking rainfall until July 8 led to widespread inland flooding in more than 30 prefectures across western and south-central Japan. The precipitation was described by an official at the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as being “at a level we have never experienced.” As well as numerous rivers and streams bursting their banks, many landslides were reported. In addition to major damage to buildings and infrastructure, there was considerable business interruption. With at least 200 lives lost, this was Japan’s deadliest flood since 1982 and the country’s deadliest natural catastrophe since the 2011 Tohoku earthquake.
In just a few days, parts of Japan received four times the rainfall typically expected in the whole month of July, according to the JMA. Local reports state that new records for rainfall during 24-, 48-, or 72-hour periods were set in 93 locations.
Numerous rivers in the impacted regions crested above their historic levels. Floodwaters reached as high as 5 meters (16.4 feet) above normal levels in some locations, and watercourses across the region overflowed. Several rivers such as the Asahi, Takahashi, Misasa, and Houman rivers near the cities of Okayama, Kurashiki, Hiroshima, and Fukuoka, respectively, experienced over 500-year return period flows. The Hijikawa River in Ehime Prefecture overflowed with an over 250-year return period flow. The rainfall abated on July 9 and water levels began to recede in some areas, but and the threat of landslides remained and railroads and highways remained closed in affected regions, hindering relief and rescue operations.
More than 46,000 residential buildings were destroyed, damaged, or inundated, according to data issued on August 8 by the Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA).
There was widespread business interruption, particularly to auto and electronics manufacturers.
AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates include:
• Insured damage to property (residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural/mutual), both structures and their contents, and automobile
AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates do not include:
• Losses to land
• Losses to infrastructure
• Losses to CAR/EAR, marine hull, or marine cargo lines of business
• Business interruption losses
• Loss adjustment expenses
• Demand surge—the increase in costs of materials, services, and labor due to increased demand following a catastrophic event; demand surge can be applied by AIR software users who want to account for this variable
About AIR Worldwide
AIR Worldwide (AIR) provides risk modeling solutions that make individuals, businesses, and society more resilient to extreme events. In 1987, AIR Worldwide founded the catastrophe modeling industry and today models the risk from natural catastrophes, terrorism, pandemics, casualty catastrophes, and cyber incidents. Insurance, reinsurance, financial, corporate, and government clients rely on AIR’s advanced science, software, and consulting services for catastrophe risk management, insurance-linked securities, longevity modeling, site-specific engineering analyses, and agricultural risk management. AIR Worldwide, a Verisk (Nasdaq:VRSK) business, is headquartered in Boston, with additional offices in North America, Europe, and Asia. For more information, please visit www.air-worldwide.com.