The Verisk COVID-19 Projection Tool developed by AIR provides information designed to help the global community in their assessment of this ongoing pandemic event. The information it provides is based on: 1) the simulated results from the AIR Pandemic Model; 2) the latest reported confirmed cases and deaths; and 3) AIR's judgment regarding underreporting, healthcare infrastructure, overall assessment of the event, and other aspects of this outbreak.
Our intent is to make as reasonable an estimated projection of cases and deaths as possible, based on the latest data and research. Therefore, if new data, research, or improvements in method suggest changes should be made to the projections, we will make those changes.
As well as providing country-level projections for the U.S., for example, the tool now also provides state-level projections. Both sets of estimates are based on known projections, government response, individual response, travel patterns, and country- and state-specific factors. The projections consider these factors and the current understanding of transmission rates in the given U.S. region.
The tool does not provide projections for regions where current reported cases are fewer than 100 because binomial uncertainty in a given region is significant, which leads to limitations in the quality of projection.