Editor’s note: This article, a collaboration by authors from ISO and AIR, first appeared in Visualize on September 25, 2020.
Will an emerging risk become an emerged risk?
The answer isn’t always simple. After all, the only certainty in our business is uncertainty. This reality makes it difficult to identify and project future threats. But risk professionals have one crucial tool in their arsenal: the benefit of hindsight.
AIR Worldwide and ISO® have embarked on a joint project to better understand why certain risks seemingly disappear and others become major insurance events. By leveraging our research on past emerging risks, we hope to develop a framework to enable the risk management community to identify and prioritize risks according to their threat potential. While this project is still ongoing, we would like to share some of our early findings on which factors contribute either to making an emerging risk fade away into history—or to making history itself.