Typhoon Risk in Japan

In 2018 and 2019, four powerful typhoons struck Japan

JMA Wind Speed (MPH)

> 60

60 – 70

70 – 80

80 – 90

> 90

Extratropical Cyclone


TRAMI   2018 

Arrived three weeks after Jebi

Traveled over nearly the entirety of Japan’s Pacific Coast

Insured loss ~USD 4 billion


JEBI   2018 

Peak wind gusts of 305 km/h

Tracked directly over Osaka

Insured loss ~USD 13 billion


HAGIBIS   2019 

Large storm with record-breaking precipitation

Tracked directly over Tokyo

Insured loss ~USD 8-10 billion


FAXAI   2019 

Made landfall in the Tokyo Metropolitan region

Brought storm surge and heavy precipitation

Insured loss ~USD 6 billion

Putting Losses in Context

Benchmarking the individual return periods of the 2018–2019 storms, losses were high but not extreme


With more than USD 30 billion in losses in two years, is there a “new normal” of higher losses?

A modern-day recurrence of Typhoon Ida (1958) and Typhoon Vera (1959) would result in USD 35 billion.

Even higher losses from back-to-back years are possible. In the catalog of the AIR Typhoon Model for Japan, there are nearly 1,000 instances:


Is Climate Change Driving Up Losses?

The impact is captured in the AIR Typhoon Model for Japan, which reflects the current climate.

Accounting for historical activity through 2019, the modeled frequency and intensity of landfalls remains robust.

climate chart

Scientists believe that climate change may be making storms:

slow cyclone icon

slow cyclone icon

Reach peak intensity farther north
slow cyclone icon

Lessons Learned

Wind vulnerability functions have been updated in the AIR model based on industry exposure changes and analysis of extensive claims and damage data

Flood damage can still be high, despite substantial investments in defenses over the last decades

pie charts

Many older wood frame homes are not considered insurable. The breakdown of insured residential construction types has been updated.

Read more about the 2018–2019 typhoons in Japan and the AIR model in this white paper



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