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2019's Atlantic Hurricanes: A Little More than We Bargained For

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Current Crop Risk in India: How Can It Be Managed Effectively?

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Modeling Fundamentals: Accounting for the Hours Clause

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Fire Down Under: The Black Saturday Fires

Articles | AIR Currents Article
April 16, 2009

On Saturday, February 7, major bushfires broke out across the southeastern Australian state of Victoria. Known as the Black Saturday fires, the disaster was the deadliest fire in Australia’s history and one of the country’s most costly natural disasters of any kind. Weeks later, while pockets were still smoldering, AIR undertook a post-disaster survey of some of the hardest-hit areas north of Melbourne. In this article Dr. Praveen Sandri, Managing Director of AIR’s Hyderabad office, reports on the February fires and the findings of AIR’s survey . AIR Senior Research Scientist Dr. Tomas Girnius adds some background on the history of bushfires in Australia and on the nature of the peril today.
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1868: The Original Great San Francisco Earthquake

Articles | AIR Currents Article
November 14, 2008

Though often overshadowed in the public imagination by the well known San Andreas Fault to the west, the Hayward Fault is an equally well studied fault in the San Francisco Bay Area, and one that is capable of producing large magnitude earthquakes akin to its more famous cousin. According to estimates by the US Geological Survey, stress on the Hayward fault is released cataclysmically in the form of a major earthquake approximately every 140 years. The last such event occurred on October 21, 1868—140 years ago. With dramatic flair uncharacteristic of the profession, scientists have labeled the Hayward Fault a tectonic time bomb, due at any time to produce the next major Bay Area earthquake. In this article, AIR's Dr. Khosrow Shabestari and Dr. Tao Lai give an overview of the 1868 event, identify significant existing vulnerabilities and provide an estimate of the potential losses were the Hayward to rupture today.
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Modeling Fundamentals: Accounting for the Hours Clause

Articles | AIR Currents Article
October 16, 2019

Accounting for the hours clause in European windstorms modeling presents specific challenges.
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Modeling Fundamentals: Advanced Loss Modification

Articles | AIR Currents Article
October 16, 2019

The Advanced Loss Modification (ALM) module in Touchstone Re™, the successor to and next generation of EMM in CATRADER™, enables companies to analyze global reinsurance treaties beyond the scope covered by AIR’s traditional suite of models and offers clients the flexibility to modify modeled losses and perform advanced sensitivity testing, all within the same reinsurance platform they are using today.
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Managing Storm Surge Risk in Great Britain: A Look Back at the North Sea Flood of 1953 and Xaver in 2013

Articles | AIR Currents Article
August 05, 2019

The North Sea Flood of 1953, a powerful storm with waves that crashed over coastal defenses in the UK and Netherlands, claimed 2,500 lives in the storm surge.
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Managing Central European Flood Risk: A Look Back at the 2010 Poland Flood

Articles | AIR Currents Article
July 23, 2019

With the AIR Inland Flood Model for Central Europe update now covering Poland, we take a closer look at the costly 2010 Poland flood.
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Managing the Changing Mortality Risk in an Aging U.S. Population

Articles | AIR Currents Article
May 21, 2019

Mortality rates for various age groups of the U.S. are changing; see how to make stochastic measurements of these changes to inform mortality risk decisions.
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2018: Japan’s Year of Catastrophes

Articles | AIR Currents Article
April 24, 2019

Beginning nearly one year ago, a devastating series of inland floods, typhoons, and earthquakes in Japan in 2018 tested the insurance industry’s resilience. This article explains the value of taking a holistic view of risk across perils and what role catastrophe models play in helping companies understand their aggregate loss potential.
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Higher Resolution Is Great but Does Not Guarantee a Better Flood Model

Articles | AIR Currents Article
July 15, 2018

The more accurately a flood model can determine where floodwater will go and how deep it will be at each location, the better it will perform. While the resolution of a flood model is important, the quality of the data underlying its digital terrain model is more so.
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What Hilal, Andreas, and Ela Can Teach Us About European Severe Thunderstorm Risk

Articles | AIR Currents Article
May 16, 2018

Three of Europe’s costliest severe thunderstorms have occurred in just the last decade. In this article, AIR’s Dr. Eric Robinson and Dr. Bernhard Reinhardt discuss how these storms demonstrate the importance of taking a probabilistic view of European severe thunderstorm risk.
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