The Inland Flood Model for Central Europe

Flooding is a ubiquitous and frequent hazard in Central Europe, both on and off the floodplains. Recent record-breaking inland floods have caused billions of euros in insured losses. In 2013, floodwaters rose to the highest levels ever recorded in some areas, incurring nearly EUR 2 billion in insured losses in Germany alone, with further losses in Austria, Czech Republic, and Poland.

© SteffenMD under Creative Commons

Develop more effective strategies for flood risk management using real-world conditions.

Rivers and streams stretch beyond country borders and can contribute to flood events in multiple countries. The AIR Inland Flood Model for Central Europe is the industry’s first to account for floods that span Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Poland, and Switzerland.

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Make better pricing and underwriting decisions with a high-resolution model.

Both large- and small-scale rainfall events can produce loss-causing floods. AIR’s innovative approach simulates realistic patterns of precipitation over space and time at high resolution to capture the atmospheric conditions that contribute to inland flooding.

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Explicitly account for your off-floodplain risk—a significant driver of loss.

When intense precipitation falls on saturated soil, paved urban areas, and/or on areas with poor drainage, localized flooding can occur in densely populated areas and cause significant losses. To address this risk, AIR has developed a statistical module for off-floodplain loss estimation.

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Consider the impact of flood defenses—and their failure—in your risk assessments.

Levees, dikes, flood walls, and mobile or temporary defense barriers help protect properties in Central Europe from inundation, and their failure can be devastating. AIR’s model accounts for the impacts of flood defenses.

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Understand how policy conditions affect your flood risk.

The AIR model’s 10,000-year stochastic catalog contains 123,000 events that impact Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Poland, and Switzerland. Stochastic events are congruent across all five countries and consistently conform to the 504 hours clause, which is an accurate way of accounting for the correlation in loss across portfolios in these countries. Companies can also use standard policy conditions found in Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Poland, and Switzerland in Touchstone®.

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Address Solvency II requirements and get information on model validation.

AIR’s support provides you with a deep understanding of model assumptions, limitations, and validation to help you address Solvency II requirements.

Learn more about Solvency II



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