Pandemic flu is widely credited with being the largest driver of excess mortality risk in the world. While pandemics are infrequent,the potential impact is high. They can emerge suddenly and without warning on any continent and spread to any other.

The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, which impacted more than 200countries, merely hinted at the threat that a more virulent and easily transmissible influenza virus could pose to the financial viability of an insurer. The 1918 Spanish Flu caused the deaths of millions of people worldwide; in the U.S. alone, life insurance losses reached nearly USD 100 million-or USD 19.9 billion in today's dollars. Fortunately, there are tools available that enable companies to assess the risk.

The AIR Pandemic Flu Model captures the excess morbidity,mortality, and insurance losses caused by pandemic influenza. A metapopulation Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR)epidemiologic model simulates disease transmission. Short-range and long-range transportation networks are explicitly modeled.Mitigation measures, including travel restriction and vaccine administration, are taken into account when estimating disease spread. The result is a spatio-temporal distribution of the infected population by gender and age cohort on a global model domain (the "pandemic footprint").

Peer-reviewed by world-renowned experts in their fields, AIR's pandemic flu model leverages the highest quality data regarding illness outcomes and associated costs from our sister company Verisk Health, a leading provider of risk assessment and decision analytics to the healthcare industry.