Pandemic flu is widely credited with being the largest driver ofexcess mortality risk in the world. While pandemics are infrequent,the potential impact is high. They can emerge suddenly and withoutwarning on any continent and spread to any other.

The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, which impacted more than 200countries, merely hinted at the threat that a more virulent andeasily transmissible influenza virus could pose to the financialviability of an insurer. The 1918 Spanish Flu caused the deaths ofmillions of people worldwide; in the U.S. alone, life insurancelosses reached nearly USD 100 million-or USD 19.9 billion intoday's dollars. Fortunately, there are tools available that enablecompanies to assess the risk.

The AIR Pandemic Flu Model captures the excess morbidity,mortality, and insurance losses caused by pandemic influenza. Ametapopulation Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR)epidemiologic model simulates disease transmission. Short-range andlong-range transportation networks are explicitly modeled.Mitigation measures, including travel restriction and vaccineadministration, are taken into account when estimating diseasespread. The result is a spatio-temporal distribution of theinfected population by gender and age cohort on a global modeldomain (the "pandemic footprint").

Peer-reviewed by world-renowned experts in their fields, AIR'spandemic flu model leverages the highest quality data regardingillness outcomes and associated costs from our sister company Verisk Health, a leadingprovider of risk assessment and decision analytics to thehealthcare industry.



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