Arash Nasseri

The notion that 10% of high-rise structures in San Francisco could collapse during a major earthquake has unsurprisingly gotten a great deal of attention. Is it true?

Earlier this year an article in The New York Times speculated about the “high” probability of steel high-rise buildings in San Francisco built before the 1994 Northridge earthquake collapsing in a future quake.

Earlier this year The New York Times published three articles regarding the seismic hazard and safety concerns for tall buildings, particularly those in San Francisco, which stimulated discussion both in the public domain and in the engineering community.

A stitch in time, they say, saves nine—and retrofitting an older home to protect against major hurricane or earthquake damage can save a bundle down the road in repair costs and lower insurance premiums. In California, which experiences more than 37,000 earthquakes a year (granted, all but a few are too small to be felt) and has two-thirds of the nation’s earthquake risk, stringent building codes aim to ensure that modern construction will sustain minimal damage during quakes. But most of the property in the state is older, and having been constructed to lesser standards, is not so resilient.