Pandemic

Since 2012, 1,321 cases and 466 deaths associated with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) have been reported, mainly in Saudi Arabia. But little attention was paid due to the disease's low transmission between humans and relatively low case counts.

I am very excited to report that AIR has completed development of global pandemic disease risk models for coronaviruses (such as those responsible for SARS and MERS) and filoviruses (including Ebola and Marburg).

One of the biggest news stories in the U.S. over the last few months has been the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. As a result, in part, of the sheer volume of news coverage, it has been of great concern to the U.S. populace.

My previous post discussed three factors that could increase the global Ebola pandemic. Today I am going to outline three key factors that could decrease it.

Ebola seems to be making new headlines every day. There is enormous interest in the fight against the disease in West Africa, as well as in the possibility of its spreading to other continents.

One of the advantages of working at AIR is that I often question colleagues about sensational news headlines, to get the real scoop. When the media starts alarming audiences with polar vortices, hypercanes, thunder snow, and the like I seek out one of my friendly neighborhood subject matter experts who work with these topics every day.

Spring is finally in full swing! Aside from the nicer weather, it also marks the end of flu season. In the U.S., this typically lasts from October to May and peaks in February—but of course every season varies.

A little over a year ago, an influenza virus called H7N9 began to sicken and kill humans. Along with many others around the world, I watched and waited to see if a new pandemic was in the making. There have now been more than 400 confirmed human cases, at least 20% of which resulted in death. Fortunately, a second wave of cases in China now appears to be on the downswing, most likely because of the closing of live poultry markets and the arrival of spring.