Mark Gibbas, Senior Research Meteorologist at AIR, has contributed a chapter on climate uncertainty to Climate Risk and the Weather Market: Financial Risk Management with Weather Hedges, recently published by Risk Books. The book is an expansive guide to the fundamentals of the weather risk market. It discusses the numerous ways in which the weather affects business as it teaches how to apply this knowledge to protect its readers' interests. Readers will understand the increasing importance of this expanding field that is fuelled by the ongoing growth in the range and diversity of weather insurance derivatives. Find out more about the book and how to buy it at http://www.riskbooks.com/ix_cratwm.html

AIR earthquake engineers will present six papers at the 7th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering (7NCEE) to be held in Boston July 21-25.

Paolo Bazzurro and C.A. Cornell, “Vector-Valued Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (VPSHA),” 7NCEE, July, 2002.

Nicolas Luco, P.M. Mai, C.A. Cornell, and G.C. Beroza, “Probabilistic Seismic Demand Anlysis at a Near-Fault Site Using Ground Motion Simulations Based on a Stochastic-Kinematic Earthquake Source Model,” 7NCEE, July, 2002.

Ahmet Yakut, N. Kishi and J. Byeon, “Capacity Spectrum Method for Long Period Buildings Far From Epicenter,” 7NCEE, July, 2002.

Ji-Seok Byeon, N. Kishi and A. Yakut, “A Method for Translating MMI Based Vulnerability Curves into Curves Based on Spectral Ordinates,” 7NCEE, July, 2002.

Mehrdad Mahdyiar, "A Comparison Between NEHRP and Earthquake-based Site Effects in Greater Los Angeles," 7NCEE, July, 2002.

Mehrdad Mahdyiar, "Incorporating Uncertainties in Earthquake Loss Analysis of Portfolios," 7NCEE, July, 2002.

The emergence of ensemble Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modeling technology has broadened the ways in which NWP models can be applied for weather and climate forecasts in general and in the area of weather risk assessment in particular. Dr. John Keller, AIR senior research scientist in meteorology, will present this paper at the American Meteorological Society's Annual Meeting on January 13-17, 2002 in Orlando.

To view a PDF version of the paper click on the link below.
Weather Risk Assessment and NWP (1.4MB)

This paper, written by AIR Vice President Jayanta Guin and Senior Research Engineer Vinita Saxena, discusses the nature, frequency, severity and spatial distribution of three perils: earthquakes, tropical cyclones and extratropical cyclones. It also describes a generalized formulation of the catastrophe loss model and presents model results in terms of probability distributions of loss. The paper was presented by its authors at the First Annual IIASA-DPRI Meeting in Laxenburg, Austria on August 1-4, 2001.

To view a PDF version of the paper click on the link below.
Extreme Losses from Natural Disasters (537 KB)

This paper, authored by Senior Research Engineers Ahmet Yakut and Jianlin Song and AIR Director of Engineering Research and Analysis Nozar G. Kishi, was published in the Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability, Newport Beach, CA in June 2001.

This paper, written by AIR Research Engineer Vinita Saxena, Principal Research Engineer Jianming Yin and Senior Research Engineer Jianlin Song, was published in the Proceedings of the Americas Conference on Wind Engineering, Clemson University, South Carolina on June 3-6, 2001.

Authored by Ali Touran, Professor of Construction Management at Northeastern University, AIR Senior Research Engineer Ugur Kadakal and AIR Manager of Earthquake Engineering Nozar G. Kishi, this paper was published in the Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Structural and Construction Engineering held in Hawaii this month.

Written by AIR Manager of Earthquake Engineering Nozar G. Kishi and AIR Senior Research Engineers Richard Song and Ugur Kadakal, this paper, entitled "Uncertainty Analysis in the Objective Assessment of Building Vulnerability to Earthquakes," was published in the Proceedings of the Ninth US-Japan Workshop in Victoria, British Columbia, August 2000.

This paper, authored by AIR Senior Research Engineer Dr. Ian Nunez and published in the Proceedings of the Second EuroConference on Global Change and Catastrophe Risk Management, draws on field surveys carried out in the aftermath of the Izmit earthquake of 1999 to show examples of regional earthquake vulnerability.

To view a PDF version of the paper click on the link below.
Izmit: Lessons Learned (440k)

Three days after a devastating 7.4 M earthquake struck Izmit, Turkey, the AIR post-disaster field investigation team began an on-site survey of the damage. The goals of the survey were to inspect the seismological and geological aspects of the earthquake and to investigate characteristics of building damage.

To view a PDF version of the paper click on the link below.

Part1 (2,282k)
Part2 (2,585k)

After the Oklahoma City tornadoes, AIR engineers were quickly dispatched to conduct a post-disaster field survey of the damage. AIR engineers regularly conduct post-disaster field surveys to observe how structures perform when subjected to extreme weather conditions. They collect data that is used to validate damageability relationships within the AIR catastrophe models.

To view a PDF version of the paper click on the link below.
Oklahoma City Tornadoes (366k)

Through incorporation of the most current scientific and engineering research, the AIR earthquake model features several enhancements pertaining to seismicity and earthquake risk in this region.

To view a PDF version of the paper click on the link below.
Most Recent Scientific Findings (374k)

Hurricane Georges provided a perfect opportunity for AIR to validate the importance of duration in the AIR hurricane model. Last September, Georges stalled over the Gulf Coast and battered the area around Biloxi and Gulfport with hurricane and tropical storm force winds over an unusually prolonged period of time. AIR’s tropical cyclone model is currently the only such model that incorporates this effect in the modeling of wind damage.

To view a PDF version of the paper click on the link below.
Confirming Evidence from Hurricane Georges (246k)

AIR is co-sponsoring a 4-day special supplement for the National Association of Independent Insurers (NAII) Annual Convention which is being held in San Diego, CA from October 31 through November 3. Reactions magazine, a UK-based insurance publication, is producing this special supplement titled the NAII Reporter.

To view PDF versions of the papers click on the link below.
Modeling a Brighter Future (20k)
A Tale of Two Quakes (47k)
Reaching New Heights in Risk Modeling (29k)
Why Securitization Matters (24k)

Written by AIR Senior Research Engineers Ugur Kadakal, Ian Nunez and Mohammad Zolfaghari, this paper, entitled "A Post-disaster Estimation Methodology," was published in the Proceedings of the ITU-IAHS International Conference on the Kocaeli Earthquake held in Istanbul, December 1999.