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The quality of AIR modeling results, in terms of reliability, robustness, and
stability over time, has reinforced AIR's position as the world's premier
catastrophe modeling firm. That quality, unsurpassed in the industry, is
the result of an exhaustive process of peer review, validation, and
calibration that each model component undergoes at every stage of development.
Reliability and Accuracy of Results. No other company can match AIR's track record for providing reliable results to clients, both before and after catastrophic events. Our results have been put to the test: since Hurricane Hugo struck South Carolina in 1989, clients have relied on AIR's real-time loss estimates for both wind and earthquake perils worldwide. In turn, AIR models have been validated and calibrated using over $25 billion of actual claims data. Robustness to Level of Detail Provided. The purpose of catastrophe modeling is to anticipate the likelihood and severity of catastrophe events so clients can appropriately prepare for their financial impact. AIR catalogs of simulated potential events represent the entire spectrum of potential catastrophe experience — not just events of average probability but also the most extreme and rare events that make up the so-called "tail" of the statistical distribution. Extensive convergence testing and validation ensures that results are meaningful at high geographical resolution and can be relied upon for decision-making. Stability of Results over Time. AIR models provide consistent results from year to year, enabling companies to develop and implement effective, long term risk management strategies. AIR models and their underlying assumptions have been the subject of intense review and stress-testing by external experts representing a wide variety of interests, including the investor and rating agency communities, regulatory authorities, and academicians. Through a continual process of both internal and external peer review, and through the incorporation of newly available data and findings from the most current scientific and engineering research, AIR's sophisticated modeling technologies provide clients with the most reliable loss estimates available.
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