At the midpoint of an already active 2008 hurricane season, AIR Worldwide Corporation (AIR) issued a white paper to provide an update on its original research on climatological influences on hurricane landfall risk. The white paper explains in detail AIR’s approach to creating a climate-conditioned view of U.S. hurricane risk and outlines a robust approach to catastrophe risk assessment using multiple views of the risk. Click here for the white paper.

On July 30, AIR's Director of Atmospheric Research Dr. Peter Dailey participated in a roundtable discussion at NOAA headquarters in Washington DC to explore how a proposed National Climate Service (NCS) might serve the insurance industry.

Volatile capital markets, a rising number of large losses from natural and man-made catastrophic events, and the accelerating deregulation of insurance markets have had a significant impact on the equity capital base of many insurance companies.

Wildfires are a common occurrence in California. On average, between 5 and 10 thousand wildfires are sparked throughout the state in any given year. 

As we monitor tropical cyclone activity in the world’s ocean basins this summer via the many websites that offer real-time information, we have the luxury of taking advantage of forecasts of the likelihood that storms will affect concentrations of insured exposures.

AIR produces a weekly CropAlert™ Growing Conditions Report during the growing season to update the marketplace on expected per-harvested-acre yields of the two most important insured crops: corn and soybeans.

Severe thunderstorm activity in the first half of 2008 has been extremely high. In this article, AIR’s research engineer Dr. Shiraj Khan and senior researcher Dr. Greta Ljung comment on whether it is likely to translate into a record-breaking year in terms of insured losses.

On June 30-July 1, AIR's Executive Vice President Uday Virkud addressed more than 100 insurance industry executives in two general sessions of the 7th Conference on Catastrophe Insurance in Asia, held in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, AIR Worldwide released The Coastline at Risk: Estimated Insured Value of Coastal Properties. Three years later, the increase in the number and value of exposed properties along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts continues apace—and remains the largest factor affecting insurers’ hurricane risk today. AIR has now updated the 2005 report based on AIRs estimates for the insured value of properties as of December 31, 2007. Click here to read the report.

On May 2nd, the Florida Legislature enacted in regular session Senate Bill 2860¹. The bill was signed into law by Governor Crist on May 28th.

AIR's 3rd Annual Seminar on Catastrophe Risk Management, held in Beijing on May 29, attracted more than 150 attendees representing the insurance industry, governmental and regulatory institutions, and academia.

The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF2) is the somewhat cumbersome name given to the reported conclusions of the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.

Every hurricane season is unique, and it is the job of seasonal forecasters to anticipate how the upcoming season may deviate from long-term averages.

Last month s M8.0 earthquake in China s Sichuan province is likely to become a defining event for the still fledgling, but rapidly growing, insurance industry in China.

AIR's Annual Spring Conference was held from April 6th-9th in San Diego, California.

AIR director of engineering analysis Dr. Paolo Bazzurro discusses the new ground motion prediction equations that are an important component of the newly updated USGS Seismic Hazard Maps for the US.

AIR Research engineer Dr. Cagdas kafali shares observations from AIR's post-disaster survey of the March 14 Atlanta, GA tornado.

In this article, AIR senior research scientist Tim Doggett explains one of the many complexities involved in developing the recently released AIR Mexico Tropical Cyclone Model.

In this article—the second in a two-part series—AIR's John Rollins concludes his discussion of the evolving regulatory profile of catastrophe models with an overview of the history and current landscape of regulatory efforts related to hurricane modeling.

As a reinsurer, are you confident in the ITV ratio of your cedants' portfolios?

Days after the rural town of Wells, Nevada was hit by a magnitude 6.0 earthquake, AIR sent a team of earthquake engineers to survey the damage.

The 2008 severe thunderstorm season got off to an early—and deadly—start on February 5 when dozens of tornadoes swept through the mid south. Thousands of buildings from Texas to Ohio were severely damaged or destroyed, and as many as 50 people were killed. In this article, Research engineer Dr. Shiraj Khan, who led the AIR team that surveyed the damage in the aftermath of the Super Tuesday tornado outbreak, details his observations.

In this article Senior Research Scientist Gerhard Zuba and Director of Atmospheric Research Peter Dailey discuss the phenomenon of temporal clustering of extratropical cyclones over Europe.

The evolving market equilibrium in the financing, pricing and underwriting of U.S. coastal residential property insurance has precipitated a degree of unrest from Texas to Maine. Availability and affordability concerns have spurred political leaders in many states to examine root causes—often for the first time.

In this article, AIR senior vice president David Lalonde and risk consultant Pascal Karsenti offer a primer on catastrophe bond issuance, including an overview of some of the most common structures, triggers and resets.

In this article, Dr. Peter Sousounis discusses the advantages, disadvantages, and likely evolution of the Dvorak Technique for measuring tropical cyclone intensity—measurements that inform AIR's worldwide tropical cyclone models.

The Earth's climate is changing […and] while there is uncertainty in the magnitude and rate at which warming will occur and debate over its precise causes, it is clear that the consequences of a warmer climate will have profound societal impacts worldwide.

At Kyrill's one-year anniversary, Milan Simic, Managing Director of AIR's London operation, and Yörn Tatge, Managing Director of AIR's Munich operation, take a look back at this event and discuss loss development, lessons learned and conclusions to be drawn.

In this article, University of Colorado professor Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. discusses findings from some recently-published papers on the subject of hurricanes and global warming.

In this article, AIR's Dr. Mehrdad Mahdyiar discusses the history of the various earthquake magnitude scales, their advantages and limitations, and why the scientific community seems finally to have settled on one: the moment magnitude scale.

In this article AIR Director of Atmospheric Research Dr. Peter S. Dailey reviews the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season and addresses some of the questions it raises about near-term hurricane risk.

Insurers today have the ability to analyze catastrophe risk for individual residential properties at the point of underwriting. In this article, AIR Vice President George Davis explains how.

In this article, AIR's Oscar Vergara takes time out from celebrating AIR's latest victory in the FACTSim Futures and Options Trading Competition to talk about the complexities of underwriting agricultural risk and how the AIR Agricultural Loss Model can give companies a competitive advantage.

AIR Director of Research in Atmospheric Sciences Dr. Peter Dailey discusses the implicit uncertainties in weather and climate, and explains how research in the area of climate and hurricanes—despite being fraught with uncertainty—is providing a deeper understanding of how the environment reacts to change.

As AIR meteorologist and senior research scientist Dr. Peter Sousounis explains in this article, even weak wind typhoons can cause catastrophic damage in China.

AIR Vice President Glen Daraskevich reviews last month's fires and offers some key takeaways from AIR's survey of the damage.

AIR's annual Fall Software Users' Conference was held from October 1-2 at the brand new InterContinental Boston, the latest addition to Boston's historic waterfront.

Many scientists believe that the Atlantic Ocean undergoes fluctuations in temperature on a multi-decadal timescale.

This summer, large parts of the western United States was in flames. Wildfires spurred by above-normal spring and summer temperatures and one of the worst droughts in decades charred several million acres across 11 western states.

Whatever the market—Bermuda, London, New York, Zurich, Minneapolis—the story is the same. Job postings are everywhere that read "Wanted: experienced catastrophe modeler to lead..."

Today marks the sixth anniversary of September 11th. The events of that day instantly changed the way insurers and reinsurers view catastrophe risk.

This month, the US Geological Survey (USGS) is scheduled to officially release new seismic hazard maps for US. The preliminary version of the maps and accompanying documentation were made available to the public for comment in June 2007.

Seasonal hurricane forecasts have become quite accessible and newsworthy these days. Typically, the first forecasts come out at the beginning of the calendar year, with the most attention paid to those released in April and May, just prior to the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1st.

The Association of British Insurers has estimated that the July flooding across western, central and southern England is likely to cost insurers in excess of £1b. In this article, AIR research hydrologist Dr. Boyko Dodov discusses factors affecting flood risk in the context of the July UK floods.

The opportunities represented by a rapidly growing insurance market in China are also accompanied by significant risks--earthquake risk among them. In this article AIR Senior Vice President Jayanta Guin and Project Manager Tao Lai discuss how AIR and the Beijing Institute of Architectural Design are collaborating to increase the industry's understanding of building vulnerability in the face of China's earthquake hazard.

Much was made last year of the possible mitigating impact of El Niño on the 2006 hurricane season. This year, some hurricane forecasters are breathing a sigh of relief that the onset of an anticipated La Niña regime along with its potential exacerbating effects has been delayed.

AIR recently performed a post-disaster survey of areas England most affected by days of torrential rain that flooded tens of thousands of properties. In this special report we discuss factors that contributed to the severity of this event and report on the damage we observed.

In this article, AIR's John Rollins discusses the potential benefits of closer integration of ERM and cat risk management.

In this article, contributing author Dr. Arindam Chowdhury discusses what engineers hope to learn from FIU's state-of-the-art testing facility.

Long the standard tool for modeling multiple-event covers, AIR vice president Bill Churney explains how AIR's modelng approach makes it easy to enhance CATRADER to support new structures, such as drop-down covers.

On May 31st, AIR welcomed more than 150 industry professionals and researchers to a day-long seminar at the InterContinental Hotel in Beijing's prestigious Financial Street District.

Prior to every hurricane season (June 1st through November 30th), a variety of private and public weather agencies and academic institutions issue seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity. In this latest in our climate research series, Dr. Pete Dailey takes a look at how these forecasts are developed.

Rocks that appear as though they would be easily toppled are helping scientists better estimate peak ground acceleration from prehistoric earthquakes. AIR Manager of Engineering Analysis Dr. Paolo Bazzurro explains the potential impact of this new data on the soon-to-be-released update to the USGS report.

Claims data generated by the hurricanes of 2004 and 2005 highlight the need for reinsurers to critically review their cedant’s policy exposure information. In this article, AIR Manager of Client Relations Will Skinner explains how reinsurers can better evaluate a cedant's underlying detailed exposure data and differentiate it from that of other companies.

AIR recently performed a post-disaster survey of the areas most heavily affected by a 4.2 magnitude earthquake off the south east coast of Kent, England—the largest recorded earthquake in Britain since 2002. Click here to learn how the earthquake impacted local structures and view photos of the damage.

More than 230 industry professionals and a distinguished array of guest speakers participated in AIR’s 2007 Spring Conference. AIR Currents reviews agenda highlights, as well as photos from this year’s conference, held in Boca Raton, Florida.

John Rollins, FCAS, MAAA, an actuary and Vice President of AIR, gave a guest lecture on catastrophe modeling to students in the Master's program in Actuarial Science at the University of Central Florida in Orlando, FL on April 3rd.

In this latest edition of our climate research series, AIR Director of Atmospheric Science, Dr. Pete Dailey, discusses the history and workings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as well as the IPCC's latest report on the link between climate change and extreme weather.

With this article, AIR Vice President John Rollins introduces a new series of in-depth articles on catastrophe modeling best practices for the primary insurer.

This paper, written by AIR Vice President John Rollins, FCAS, MAAA, appears in the 2005 Proceedings of the Casualty Actuarial Society (PCAS). In it, Rollins argues that obsolete rating architecture is a cause of decades of documented poor financial performance of residential property insurance products. Improving rating efficiency and equity through modernization of rating and statistical plans is critical to the continued viability of the products. To download the paper, click here.

AIRCurrents sat down with AIR President and CEO Karen Clark to talk about climate change, the near term view, and managing hurricane risk in today's market.

The 2006-07 winter storm season in Europe is now winding down. While Kyrill was a significant storm that produced significant loss, things could have been much worse.

Developers continue to push the envelope of current codes for the sake of lower costs and better views. No cause for alarm, says AIR Manager of Engineering Analysis Dr. Paolo Bazzurro.

AIR Research Scientist Gerhard Zuba discusses why the AIR model gives companies a competitive advantage.

How do we draw a line from ENSO to climatic effects to catastrophe risk? Dr. Peter Dailey, AIRs Director of Atmospheric Science, examines this and other facets of ENSO in this latest edition of our climate research series.

A critical decision for the catastrophe modeler is when to incorporate new scientific theory. AIR Vice President Jayanta Guin discusses the issue in this article.

2006 gave the industry a moment to catch its collective breath. According to numbers reported by the major global reinsurers, insured catastrophe losses worldwide totaled $15 billion in 2006—a figure significantly lower than the $80 billion recorded in 2005.

Denver has been hit by a series of snowstorms this year that have left travelers stranded, yet property damage has thus far not been significant. In this, the second of our climate research series, AIR Director of Atmospheric Science Pete Dailey discusses a possible reason.

AIR Director of Atmospheric Sciences Dr. Peter Dailey reviews the 2006 season and its implications for the near-term view of hurricane risk.

On the morning of December 26, 2004, an earthquake with magnitude estimated at between 9.1 and 9.3 off the western coast of the Indonesian island of Sumatra triggered the deadliest tsunami in human history.

To address the growing need for skilled catastrohpe modelers, AIR Worldwide offers the AIR Institute Catastrophe Modeling Program, a comprehensive course designed to groom the next generation of modelers.

As the 2006 wildfire season comes to a close, AIR's Glen Daraskevich takes a look at how it measured up against other recent seasons.

In this article, AIR Vice President George Davis talks about how the latest release of ISO HomeValue enables homeowners insurers to dramatically enhance the way they make underwriting decisions.

Researchers are trying to better understand precisely how the Saharan Air Layer inhibits tropical storm formation. This article by AIR Chief Meteorologist Peter Dailey walks us through some of the possible mechanisms.

This article, written by AIR Chief Meteorologist Dr. Peter Dailey, is the first in a series about the key concepts and latest research findings in climate research.

In this article, AIR Vice President Bill Churney discusses methods that underwriters can employ to effectively differentiate between companies based on the quality of their exposure data.

AIR's annual Fall Software Users'Conference was held from Sept 21-22 in Boston, MA. In light of the rapidly growing ranks of catastrophe analysts in the industry, this year's conference featured four different tracks ranging from basic to advanced, and included a new track on ISO HomeValue™, AIR's web-based property replacement valuation system.

On the morning of October 20, 1991, what became the costliest wildfire in U.S. history ignited in the hills outside Oakland, CA.

Karen Clark, AIR's president and CEO was named to Business Insurance magazine's list of "Women to Watch" in 2006.

AIR recently performed a post-disaster survey of the areas most heavily affected by Typhoon Saomai, which struck China in August 2006 as the most intense typhoon the nation had experienced in 50 years.

AIR Worldwide President and CEO Karen Clark addressed members of the investment community at the 2nd Annual Bermuda in Boston conference held on September 19.

At 9:50 P.M. on August 31, 1886, the city of Charleston, South Carolina, was shaken by one of the largest historic seismic disturbances in eastern North America.

This article, written by AIR Senior Manager and Terrorism Model Product Manager Jack Seaquist, first appeared in the September issue of The Review. In it, the author addresses terrorism risk management best practices in the wake of 9/11.

It is widely reported that seven of the top ten hurricane losses in the United States occurred in 2004 and 2005. While this fact may be true from an actual insured loss perspective, it's a very misleading statistic since the number and value of properties have increased dramatically; in fact, well beyond the inflation rate.

AIRCurrents sat down with Dr. Peter Dailey, AIR's Director of Atmospheric Sciences, to discuss how NWP is used in AIR's catastrophe models and to address some of the commonly heard misconceptions about the technology.

At just over two months into the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season and with less than a month to go before the historically most active month begins, it is an opportune time to assess where we currently stand and to review the latest thinking about how the season will ultimately unfold.

In an effort to better prepare homeowners for the hurricane season, the Insurance Information Institute has published the Hurricane Insurance Information Center on its website. AIR provided the III with scenarios of potential hurricanes in the Northeast.

One of the deadliest earthquakes in modern times occurred at 3:42 a.m. on July 28, 1976 in Tangshan, China.

AIR recently performed a post-disaster survey of the areas in China most heavily affected by Typhoon Chanchu, which brought strong winds and heavy rain to the Philippines and China in May of 2006.

This article, written by AIR Assistant Vice President Bill Churney, first appeared in the Spring 2006 issue of Journal of Reinsurance. In it, the author addresses a variety of underwriting best practices in a post Hurricane Katrina world.

AIR President and CEO Karen Clark addressed more than 500 attendees in a discussion on Managing Catastrophe Risk with Evolving Catastrophe Risk Models at the 22nd Annual Standard & Poor's Insurance Conference.

AIR President and CEO Karen Clark welcomed representatives of major insurers, reinsurers and intermediaries at two seminars celebrating the opening of AIR’s newest offices.

This white paper provides a review of the current state of research on climatological impacts on hurricane activity and explains the approach used to create the AIR near-term sensitivity catalog, which quantifies the impact of SST forecasts on insured losses for the next five years.

As of May 1st, well in advance of the start of the 2006 hurricane season, ALERT™ users will notice some dramatic differences in the website. Along with new functionality, ALERT’s user interface has undergone a major redesign, making event information easier to find and use.

Kicking off on the 100th anniversary of the San Francisco earthquake, this year's annual Spring Conference featured a record attendance of more than 220 industry professionals.

The American Academy of Actuaries (AAA) selected AIR Worldwide’s Terrorism Loss Estimation Model to support a study of potential terrorism costs in major metropolitan areas in the U.S.

On April 18-22l, AIR earthquake engineers and seismologists will be presenting a number of papers at this year’s 100th Anniversary Earthquake Conference commemorating the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake to be held in San Francisco.

AIR’s President and CEO Karen Clark was a speaker at the seventh World Insurance Forum held in Southampton, Bermuda from February 21 to 23, 2006.. Industry leaders presented their views in a series of panels and Q&A sessions to an audience of more than 300 executives from the insurance, reinsurance, and financial industries.

This article, by AIR's Ming Lee, discusses the rising interest in alternative risk transfer (ART), and catastrophe bonds in particular.

At 6:01 AM, PST, on February 9, 1971, the San Fernando Valley in southern California was struck by a magnitude 6.7 earthquake. The epicenter was located about 20 miles north of downtown Los Angeles. The 1971 San Fernando Earthquake, also known as the Sylmar Earthquake, is still considered one of the most significant earthquakes to occur in modern California history.

On January 23, 1556 the deadliest earthquake in history occurred in the Chinese province of Shaanxi. With an estimated magnitude between 8.0 and 8.3, the earthquake caused damage in nearly 100 counties across 10 provinces.

On Friday, January 26, 2001, at 8:46 a.m. local time (03:16 GMT), a major earthquake with a magnitude of 7.6 shook the Indian subcontinent.

In December 1999, Europe was hit by three devastating windstorms—Anatol, Lothar and Martin.

This article by AIR's Bill Churney reveals how insurers, brokers and reinsurers can easily perform a quick reasonability check of any company’s detailed catastrophe analysis and, therefore, the quality of their exposure data.

This year marks the 250th anniversary of the magnitude 6.0 Cape Ann earthquake that struck New England on the morning on November 18, 1755.

This article by Dr. Peter Dailey, AIR's manager of atmospheric science, reviews the history of the 2003 "Storm of the Century" and explains the factors that drove insured losses to unprecedented levels for a winter storm. It discusses how AIR's winter storm model captures and accounts for a full range of potential storm scenarios—including the most extreme events—using NWP.

This white paper provides a comprehensive review of methodologies currently used by insurers and reinsurers for assessing and managing terrorism risk. The white paper reviews three approaches for terrorism risk management and addresses best practices for exposure data collection and risk control. Techniques discussed in the white paper can also help insurers determine the impact on their portfolios of any changes that may be made to TRIA by Congress.

At the AIR Software Users' Conference in September 2005, clients were invited to participate in interactive roundtable discussions with AIR staff members to help determine the future direction of AIR products and services. Click here to read an update on our progress and future plans for implementing your suggestions.

In this report, Fitch Ratings describes its new process for assessing the capital requirements needed by insurers and reinsurers to cover potential catastrophe losses. Fitch is moving away from the standard 100-year loss to a more robust measurement that more thoroughly captures a company’s extreme event risk to help determine the funds needed to cover the risk. To read more about Fitch’s new ratings process, please click here.

The potential impact of a major hurricane making landfall in the New York City metropolitan area was discussed by AIR Worldwide President and CEO Karen Clark at the National Catastrophe Insurance Program Summit, held in San Francisco on November 15 and 16. The conference was organized by insurance commissioners from California, Florida, Illinois, and New York to design a national program to more effectively spread the financial risk of natural and man-made catastrophes.

Click here for the presentation.
Click here to read the press release.

In light of the enhanced hurricane activity of the last two seasons and a heightened regulatory environment established by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, exposure data quality is once again becoming a critical issue for insurers.

The 2003 wildfires in southern California were the costliest in U.S. history. The region was scorched by at least 10 separate wildfire systems in October and early November.

The impact of Hurricane Katrina will be felt in the insurance community for years to come. In the near term, as the reinsurance renewal season gets underway, the question on many insurance and reinsurance underwriter’s minds is whether their models are accounting for large events like Katrina.

Fifty-one years ago, on the morning of October 15, 1954, such a storm ripped through the Mid-Atlantic states, across Pennsylvania and New York and on into Canada. Hurricane Hazel killed 95 people in the U.S., 80 more in Canada and caused economic losses of about $281 million, a huge amount five decades ago.

This article shows how AIR loss estimates by state for the final Katrina scenario compare with the recently released PCS estimates.

AIR Worldwide estimates more than 35% of the insured value of properties in Gulf and East Coast states is in coastal counties. Click here to read the report.

On September 21 1999, at 1:47 a.m. local time an earthquake of magnitude M7.7 struck central Taiwan.

At approximately 9.p.m., August 9, 2005 a series of explosions rocked a hazardous waste plant located in Romulus, Michigan, a suburb of Detroit.

On August 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew tore across the southern tip of Florida, becoming the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history.

AIR Senior Vice President David Lalonde gave an overview of terrorism modeling at the summer 2005 Southwest Casualty Actuarial Forum held on June 21 at the Texas Department of Insurance in Austin.

AIR’s Dr. Paolo Bazzurro co-authored three papers and presented two of them at ICOSSAR2005 in Rome on June 19-23.

AIR Senior Vice President Ming Lee gave a presentation on AIR's emerging agricultural modeling technology at the 2005 Casualty Actuarial Society's Seminar on Reinsurance held in Bermuda on June 6-7.

The Americas Conference on Wind Engineering provides a forum for academics, researchers, engineering and architecture practitioners, insurance industry professionals, and students to exchange the latest scientific and technical information on wind engineering.

Fifty-nine years ago, at 10:15 a.m., Sunday, June 23, 1946, the strongest on-land earthquake recorded in Canada struck Vancouver Island.

In late spring of 2003, the eastern half of the United States was pummeled for 10 days by a storm system that resulted in the largest insured losses from an outbreak of severe thunderstorms in history. From May 2 to May 11, a swarm of supercell thunderstorms created hundreds of tornadoes, hailstorms and straight-line windstorms.

On April 10-13, AIR hosted an international audience of more than 170 attendees at the Hyatt Regency Scottsdale for its annual Spring Conference, which focused on applications of catastrophe modeling for improved business results. 

At the 2005 American Academy of Actuaries Spring Meeting, held May 2-3 in Washington D.C., AIR’s Jack Seaquist presented the latest advances in modeling terrorism risk.

AIR’s Manager of Atmospheric Science, Peter Dailey, Ph.D., was invited to speak at the UCLA Department of Atmospheric Science on “Modeling Potential Winter Storms Using NWP-Based Ensemble Techniques.”

In the early morning of April 18, 1906, long-building stresses along the San Andreas Fault were violently released, resulting in one of the worst natural disasters in U.S. history.

In this article, AIR's Frank Fischer provides an overview of why life insurers need to account for catastrophe risk and how they can use catastrophe modeling to manage the risk to their portfolios.

This month marks the 12th anniversary of the Blizzard of ’93, a winter storm so powerful and destructive it has been widely called the Storm of the Century. It was certainly the costliest winter storm in terms of insured losses and ranks among the top 20 costliest natural catastrophes in U.S. history.

AIR vice president of research and modeling Dr. Jayanta Guin gave a presentation on tsunami risk in the U.S. at the RAA seminar on catastrophe modeling held last week in Tampa, FL.

AIR presented a series of half-day seminars discussing both the recent earthquakes and the active typhoon season affecting Japan this past year.

The Blizzard of '05—the recent Nor’easter that hammered much of New England in late January—brought back vivid memories of the Blizzard of '78.

S. Ming Lee, AIR Senior Vice President, participated in a session at the United Nations World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction held in Kobe, Japan on January 18-22, 2005.

Edward Badolato, AIR Terrorism Advisory Team Member and expert in counter-terrorism and threat assessment, was honored at the Veterans Presidential Inaugural Ball on January 20, 2005 at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel in Washington D.C.

Analyzing and Preparing for Multiple Event Seasons

On January 9, 2005 in Beijing, China, the Insurance Association of China (IAC) organized a forum to cover fraud prevention and the global insurance market.

AIR's Manager of Engineering Analysis, Dr. Paolo Bazzurro, is co-author of this paper that outlines the authors' investigation into the effective probabilistic procedures for evaluating ground-motion hazard at the free-field surface of a nonlinear soil deposit located at a specific site.

Dr. Paolo Bazzurro, AIR's Manager of Engineering Analysis, is co-author of this paper that presents a statistical study on the effect of soil layers with uncertian properties on ground-motion intensity at the soil surface.

AIR Research Scientist Dr. Yufang Rong presented two papers at the 2004 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) held in San Francisco on December 13-18.

This December marks the fifth anniversaries of winter storms Anatol, Lothar and Martin, among the most destructive and costliest storms to hit Europe. Winter storms, or extratropical cyclones, are a major contributor to Europe’s overall catastrophe risk. After 5 years of relative calm, many corporate risk managers, insurers, reinsurers and intermediaries are asking how frequently they should expect such losses?

To view a PDF version of this Special Report click on the link below.
Anatol, Lothar and Martin – When Will They Happen Again?

AIR Senior Vice President David Lalonde participated in a panel discussion on life and personal accident reinsurance at the 2004 Annual Meeting of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS). Topics included reinsurance worldwide, workers' compensation, reserve adequacy and the underwriting cycle, and issues facing actuaries around the world.

AIR's Jack Seaquist presented at The 4th Global Homeland Security Conference and Exhibition - Protecting the Nation's Critical Infrastructure and Key Assets held in Arlington Virginia, November 22-23, 2004.

On November 30th, Dr. Atul Khanduri, AIR's manager of wind risk modeling, presented an overview of catastrophe modeling for attendees of the Climate Extremes and Risk Reduction Conference at the University of London.

On Saturday, October 23, 2004, a magnitude 6.6 earthquake and several significant aftershocks struck the Niigata prefecture on the west coast of Honshu, Japan. AIR analyzed the impact of the temblor on insured properties using the AIR Earthquake Model for Japan and preliminary estimates of magnitude, focal depth and rupture mechanism available from the Japan Meteorological Agency and the US Geological Survey. AIR’s estimates of insured loss, posted on the Monday following the event, ranged from USD170 million to about USD500 million. Last week, the General Insurance Association of Japan (GIAJ) released a preliminary estimate of insured losses based on actual claims information of USD130 million. Dr. Nozar Kishi, AIR technical manager and earthquake engineer, was a member of the team organized by the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) to assess the damage.

Dr. Atul Khanduri, AIR's manager of wind risk modeling, presented an overview of catastrophe modeling for attendees of the Massachusetts Association of Insurance Agents annual convention held in Boston on November 14 and 15.

AIR Worldwide and the Insurance Institute of the ROC were co-organizers of a seminar on catastrophe modeling held in Taipei, Taiwan on November 3. More than 60 insurance and reinsurance professionals attended the half-day event.

BOSTON, October, 26 2004--More than 150 clients participated in a web-based seminar last week called "The 2004 Hurricane Season in Perspective--How Unusual Is It?"

On July 21-22 in Taipei, AIR Worldwide and the Insurance Institute of the Republic of China partnered to present a conference covering catastrophe modeling.

Over the past few years, one of the major trends in catastrophe modeling has been an increase in the use of detailed modeling applications, such as AIR's CLASIC/2™, to analyze portfolios during the reinsurance placement process.

AIR's Manager of Wind Risk Modeling, Dr. Atul Khanduri, was a keynote speaker at the Property Insurance Report National Conference held October 4th in Newport Beach, CA.

On August 30 and 31, Typhoon Chaba tore through Kyushu, the southernmost island of Japan causing widespread flooding and extensive property damage.

This article by AIR's Peter Dailey, John Keller, and Michelle Fischer discusses how three years ago, AIR Worldwide introduced to the insurance industry an approach to modeling European windstorms that diverged fundamentally from the traditional parameterized models that have been in use for the last 15 years.

This article, by AIR's Jayanta Guin, re-examines the risk European countries face from extratropical cyclones. A version of this article appeared in the December 2003 issue of Reinsurance.

This article, by AIR's John Keller, Peter Dailey, and Michelle Fischer explores recent advances in meteorology, in particular physically based numerical weather prediction (NWP). A version of this article appeared in the July/August 2003 issue of Global Reinsurance.

On October 31, 2002, Molise, Italy was struck by an earthquake that measured a moderate 5.9, but affected several towns and resulted in extensive damage and the loss of 29 lives. The Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) sponsored a study of the event to analyze the impact of earthquakes on buildings, transportation, utility systems and emergency response efforts. Dr. Paolo Bazzurro, AIR’s manager of engineering analysis led the EERI team and filed this report. For the full report click here.

Ten years after Hurricane Andrew tore across South Florida, becoming the costliest natural catastrophe in U.S. history, AIR asks the question, “What will be the next event to take the insurance industry by surprise?”

To view a PDF version of this Special Report click on the link below.
Ten Years after Andrew: What Should We Be Preparing for Now?(2.8MB)

On April 27-28, 2002, a frontal system generated severe thunderstorms that produced tornadoes, hail, and straight-line windstorms across 26 states. Within days of the event, AIR delivered estimates of insured loss to clients. It was the first time that modeled loss estimates were provided so soon after the actual occurrence of an event of this type. In this Special Report, we present a description of the meteorological system and of the process by which AIR collected and prepared the data for use by the severe thunderstorm model in order to estimate losses.

To view a PDF version of this Special Report click on the link below.
Real-Time loss Estimates for Severe Thunderstorm Damage: The Event of April 27-28, 2002 (2.5MB)

AIR Senior Vice President S. Ming Lee and Director of Communications Beverly Porter explore the critical role catastrophe modeling plays in the issuance of insurance-linked securities. The risk analysis performed is fundamental to the structure of the transaction and to its pricing strategy. The modeler can help the issuer quantify basis risk and help the investor understand the correlation between various cat bonds on the market. The article appeared in the Summer 2002 issue of the Journal of Reinsurance.To view a PDF version of the article click here.

AIR President and CEO Karen Clark presents a history of catastrophe modeling technology and an explanation of how catastrophe models work. The paper also reviews recent advances in catastrophe modeling and concludes with a discussion of how insurers and reinsurers can derive maximum value from this technology. The paper was published in in the April 2002 issue of The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance (Vol. 27 No. 2, pp 181-195) To view a PDF version of the paper click on the link below.
The Use of Computer Modeling in Estimating and managing Future Catastrophe losses (391k)

Written by AIR President and CEO Karen Clark, “The Use of Computer Modeling in Estimating and Managing Future Catastrophe Losses” was published in the April 2002 issue of The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance (Vol. 27, No. 2). The paper presents a history of catastrophe modeling technology and an explanation of how catastrophe models work. It also reviews recent advances in catastrophe modeling and concludes with a discussion of how insurers and reinsurers can derive maximum value from this technology. Ms. Clark also hopes to dispel some of the common misconceptions about catastrophe modeling technology.

This paper reviews the development of catastrophe modeling technology, with particular reference to the reinsurance industry, and describes the increasing sophistication of models as they become more physically-based. The paper was authored by AIR Director of Communications Beverly Porter and AIR Senior Vice President Uday Virkud and was published in the Winter 2002 (Vol.9 No.1) issue of the Journal of Reinsurance.

To view a PDF version of the paper click on the link below.
CAT Models: Where They Came From and Where They're Going (169k)