AIR In the News

BOSTON, July 15, 2015 - According to catastrophe modeling firmAIR Worldwide, insured losses in China from Typhoon Chan-hom areunlikely to exceed CNY 2.2 billion.

"Typhoon Chan-hom made landfall in the coastal city of Zhoushan,China, on July 11, 2015, at 4:40 p.m. local time as a Category 2 storm, making it one of the strongest to hit the region this year,"said Dr. Kevin Hill, senior scientist at AIR Worldwide. "Zhoushansits across from Shanghai on Hangzhou Bay, about 130 km to itssouth-southeast. At the time of landfall, maximum sustained windsreached 45 m/s with a central pressure of 960 mb, which wasslightly less intense than its peak strength of 935 mb 24 hoursprior. Some reports suggest this could be the strongest July typhoon to hit Zhejiang Province since 1949."

Chan-hom was moving north-northeast at a rate of 20 km/h when itglanced the coast of China, moving through Shandong Province onJuly 12 and then quickly swerving out to the Yellow Sea. It thenmade a second landfall in North Korea on July 12 at approximately 3a.m. local time as a tropical storm after weakening due tosignificantly cooler sea surface temperatures. Sustained windspeeds in North Korea were reported between 80 km/h and 88km/h.

Dr. Hill noted, "Heavy downpours doused Shanghai and the provinces of Anhui and Fujian, flooding roads and fields. The ChinaMeteorological Administration (CMA) reported close to 40 cm ofprecipitation in the city of Lai'ao Village in Sanmen County southof Shanghai. Landslides washed away more than 5,000 cubic meters ofland in Ningbo city, and dozens of water gates have been opened tofacilitate flood drainage."

According to official estimates released July 15 by the Zhejiang government, economic losses in the province alone are estimated at CNY 8.86 billion, while total economic losses are estimated at CNY 9.1 billion. More than 1,000 houses are reported to have collapsedin China. Industries most impacted include agriculture, withreports of more than 200,000 hectares affected by Chan-hom, andtransportation, after thousands of flights and trains were canceleddue to weather conditions. The storm affected 2.8 million people in 520 villages and towns, spanning 69 counties and nine cities of Zhejiang Province.

Evacuations prior to landfall included about 1.2 million peoplefrom coastal areas of Zhejiang and more than 56,000 in neighboringJiangsu. Because Shanghai was on the weak side of the storm system,however, wind damage was mitigated.

AIR's insured loss estimates include take-up rates that vary byline of business and province. Note, however, that there isconsiderable uncertainty around these take-up rates.

AIR's industry insured loss estimates reflect:
• Insured physical damage to onshore property (residential,commercial, and Construction All Risks/Erection All Risks), forboth structures and their contents due to wind andprecipitation-induced flooding in China
• AIR's assumed take-up rates-that is, the percentage of propertiesin China that are actually covered against wind and flooddamage

AIR's modeled insured loss estimates do not include:
• Losses to uninsured properties
• Losses to infrastructure
• Losses from storm surge
• Losses to crops, livestock, and poultry
• Losses to auto
• Losses resulting from physical failure of flood defenses
• Losses from hazardous waste cleanup, vandalism, or civilcommotion whether directly or indirectly caused by the event
• Builders Risk
• Demand surge
• Other non-modeled losses


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