BOSTON, Sept. 8, 2009 – Catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide Corporation (AIR) announced today that it has updated its probabilistic earthquake risk model for the Mediterranean region, which is used by European insurers, brokers, and reinsurers to manage earthquake risk in this region. The release features an updated seismicity model for Portugal, revised damage functions for all modeled countries based on recently published data and research, revised age band modifiers, and a rigorous engineering-based treatment of building vulnerability as a function of height.
“The Mediterranean region is capable of producing very large earthquakes,” said Dr. Milan Simic, Managing Director, AIR Worldwide Ltd. “A recent example is the magnitude 7.5 earthquake that struck Izmit, Turkey in 1999, which ruptured more than 150 kilometers (93 mi) of the North Anatolian Fault from Düzce all the way to the Sea of Marmara. The temblor cut a swath of destruction across seven provinces, from Istanbul to Bolu. AIR estimates that a recurrence of the Izmit earthquake would produce insured losses on the order of €7.5 billion (10.7 billion USD), while total damage would exceed €27 billion (38 billion USD).”
2009 is the 10 year anniversary of three significant earthquakes in the Mediterranean region: Izmit, Düzce, and Athens. AIR estimates that the Athens, Greece earthquake, which occurred on 7 September 1999, would result in about €1.0 billion (1.4 billion USD) insured losses if it were to recur today. In all, thirteen historical events are now included in the model, enabling users to simulate the effects of a recurrence of such major earthquakes as the devastating 1755 Lisbon earthquake.
While the 1755 Lisbon earthquake occurred on a fault located hundreds of kilometers off the coast of Portugal, recent research has revealed that the probability of a strong earthquake occurring in the Lower Tagus Valley, much closer to the center of Lisbon, is much higher than previously theorized. To reflect this latest research, the AIR Earthquake Model for the Mediterranean region features a new seismicity module for Portugal based on updated estimates of the parameters of historical earthquakes published in 2007 and new research into onshore seismic source zones that have implications for earthquake risk in the Lisbon area.
The vulnerability module of the model, which estimates damage based on earthquake-induced ground motion, has been significantly enhanced based on published data and damage survey findings following earthquake activity in the last decade. In particular, recently published data regarding the vulnerability of reinforced concrete (RC) structures in Europe has been used to revise the vulnerability functions for this construction type, which dominates the building stock in many European countries. Several additional studies that address the vulnerability of unreinforced and reinforced masonry buildings in the region have also been used to define the behavior of these typologies in the model. Work from the European Macro-Seismic Scale-98 (EMS-98) has been used to validate the relative vulnerability of all construction classes.
The height of a building determines to a great extent its dynamic behavior. A taller, more slender structure is typically characterized by a greater mass and a greater flexibility. However, the variability of building vulnerability as a function of height differs by construction type. For these reasons, the updated model incorporates an engineering-based approach to model the relative vulnerability of different height classes for each construction type. Additionally, new and higher resolution age bands have been employed to capture the publication of new seismic guidelines as well as effective changes in building practices.
“Over the past five years the body of scientific knowledge related to Mediterranean earthquake risk has grown, particularly with respect to the seismicity of Portugal,” said Dr. Guillermo Franco, senior engineer at AIR Worldwide. “This update incorporates the latest research on seismicity and vulnerability to provide companies with a robust model for evaluating earthquake risk in the Mediterranean.”
AIR's Earthquake Model for the Mediterranean Region covers Italy, Portugal, Greece, Turkey, and Israel. The updated model is available in Version 11.0 of AIR’s CLASIC/2™ and CATRADER® catastrophe risk modeling applications.
About AIR Worldwide Corporation
AIR Worldwide Corporation (AIR) is the scientific leader and most respected provider of risk modeling software and consulting services. AIR founded the catastrophe modeling industry in 1987 and today models the risk from natural catastrophes and terrorism in more than 50 countries. More than 400 insurance, reinsurance, financial, corporate and government clients rely on AIR software and services for catastrophe risk management, insurance-linked securities, detailed site-specific wind and seismic engineering analyses, agricultural risk management, and property replacement cost valuation. AIR is a member of the ISO family of companies and is headquartered in Boston with additional offices in North America, Europe and Asia. For more information, please visit www.air-worldwide.com.