AIR provides catastrophe risk modeling solutions that make individuals, businesses, and society more resilient.


Adverse weather is the primary cause of crop losses, yet traditional risk assessment techniques have relied on historical yield data alone. AIR's probabilistic models and services explicitly capture the relationship between weather and yield to estimate losses.



Multiple Peril Crop Insurance (MPCI) Model for the U.S.

AIR's U.S. MPCI model employs the Agricultural Weather Index™ (AWI™) to capture the effect of weather on crop yield variability to provide potential yield outcomes and associated price scenarios. The AWI is county- and crop-specific, and considers regional variations in geography and climate to better estimate possible impacts on growing seasons. The model captures yield correlations both spatially and between crops to account for widespread weather effects, as well as correlations between crop yields and prices.

Explore our MPCI model for the U.S.


Multiple Peril Crop Insurance (MPCI) Model for China

The model leverages the AIR AWI and captures the severity, frequency, and location of drought, flood, wind, and frost/freeze events across the country. It also offers the first probabilistic approach for determining the likelihood of losses to China's forests caused by fire. The model reflects the specific policy conditions of China's insurance programs by province and offers multiple views of crop risk, customizable premium rates, and peril and line-of-business filters.

Discover our MPCI model for China

AIR crop models and services are used by leading crop insurers, reinsurers, and brokers, and have become the independent models of choice for the crop insurance industry.


Crop Hail Model for the U.S.

The model is the industry's first probabilistic model to capture the effects of hail on insured crops. The model leverages the high-resolution hail event catalog in our U.S. severe thunderstorm model, hail damage factors, and crop-specific growth stage information. It is the only model that provides loss estimates for two types of insurance products: Crop Hail (policies that pay when crop damage occurs from a hailstorm) and Production Plan (policies that pay when the actual yield at harvest is below a guaranteed yield).

Find out about our crop hail model for the U.S.

Fund Designation Service

AIR's service provides designation alternatives, allowing insurers to choose the option that best fits their risk-return target. Utilizing the U.S. MPCI model, the service offers different allocation strategies that provide a higher expected gain for the associated level of risk based on the efficient frontier. It considers multiple factors, such as probabilities of loss, mean loss ratio, 100-year return loss ratio, and tail value at risk, to rank and sort policies.

Learn about our fund designation service


"Based on a blind test of more than half a million crop insurance policies, AIR's allocation recommendations led to a significant improvement in return by accurately selecting the best policies to keep. This innovative tool will be an essential part of our fund designation strategy moving forward."

- Ron Rutledge

FMH Chairman, President, and CEO


AIR currently offers agriculture models for:

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